SAPRA India Foundation SEMINAR
"Security Research & Education" ...
 


Post Elections Afghanistan: Impact on Regional Security

On 2 November 2004, the SAPRA India Foundation organised a seminar on "Post Elections Afghanistan: Impact on Regional Security" to assess the implications of the successful presidential elections held in Afghanistan on 9 October. The seminar was inaugurated by Lt. Gen. Shantonu Choudhry, Vice Chief of Army Staff, Indian Army, who also provided the concluding remarks. The panel of speakers included seasoned diplomats, Afghanistan observers and specialists: Masood Khalili, Ambassador of Afghanistan to India, Kairat Umarov, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to India, Geoff Pyatt, Political Councillor, Embassy of the United States of America in New Delhi, Rob Macaire, Political Councillor, British High Commission, New Delhi, Dr. Sreedhar Rao, security analyst and formerly a scholar with the New Delhi-based Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), Sanjoy Majumder, BBC Online Editor for South Asia, who covered the elections and Dr. Gilbert Etienne, Professor Emeritus, Institute of International Studies & Development Studies, Geneva.

Afghan presidential elections

The panel of speakers were largely unanimous in their assessment of the Afghan presidential elections, which they termed to be a success and a new beginning for the war-ravaged country. The only note of dissent was made by Dr. Sreedhar Rao who said that there was no exact information about the number of votes polled. Dr. Rao also stated that the US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, had publicly declared who should win the elections and the advantages of such a win. This, according to Dr. Rao, is not a characteristic feature of democratic elections anywhere in the world. Mr. Sanjoy Majumder, who had covered the elections, said that it was quite similar to elections in India and there was a great degree of enthusiasm among Afghan people with regard to voting and the electoral exercise. Mr. Majumder said that Afghan women were, in particular, keen to exercise their right in order to influence the future of Afghanistan. Mr. Majumder highlighted the fact that there were no major incidents of violence during the polling, which saw large turnouts across the country as well as in Pakistan and Iran, home to millions of Afghan refugees.

Stressing on the issue of democratic change in Afghanistan, Mr. Geoff Pyatt said that the successful elections symbolised the growing convergence of interests and objectives that countries like the US and India have on Afghanistan. Mr. Pyatt said that despite the threat of Taliban and Al Qaida, the elections were a national moment that allowed Afghan people to choose their leaders.

Mr. Rob Macaire said that Britain viewed the Afghan presidential elections more like a glass half full rather than half empty. Mr. Macaire highlighted several positive developments which preceded the elections including recruiting of 30,000 teachers and enrolment of 2 million girl students in schools. Mr. Macaire termed the successful elections as the beginning of a process rather than an end of a process.

H.E. Kairat Umarov highlighted the participation of Afghan women in the elections and said that their vote was a clear rejection of decades of war, instability and absence of civilised conditions of living.

H.E. Masood Khalili expressed happiness at the appreciation of the Afghan poll process by the international community and said that despite all odds, Afghans came out and voted. Mr. Khalili expressed Afghanistan's gratitude to the international community for supporting the democratic process in Afghanistan and urged for continued support till stability is restored in Afghanistan. Mr. Khalili asserted that the results were something more than voting along ethnic lines as President Hamid Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, won more than 55 per cent of the votes whereas Pashtuns constitute only about 40 per cent of Afghanistan's population. Gen. Choudhry said that under the given circumstances, the best thing that happened in Afghanistan were the elections and the beginning of a process of democratisation.

Threats to Regional Security
The panel of speakers were unanimous in their view that despite the elections, greater efforts are required to address the threats to regional security emanating from Afghanistan. Mr. Majumder highlighted the fact that his colleague had in fact met a group of men claiming to be Taliban members who said that they would not let the elections happen. Dr. Sreedhar Rao pointed to the fact that despite three years since the US-led military campaign in Afghanistan, the principal actors - Osama bin Laden, Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar - were still around. Dr. Rao said that reports have shown that Kabul's authority is limited to the Kabul region and the terrorist forces continue to pose serious threat to the Karzai regime and regional security. Dr. Rao stated that certain compromises were made during the war against terrorism in Afghanistan which will have repercussions for regional security. Dr. Gilbert Etienne, who focussed on Afghan reconstruction during his presentation, said that drug production and trafficking in Afghanistan represented a threat to regional security. Dr. Etienne stated that warlords and terrorists continue to be active in Afghanistan and a greater commitment by the international community is required to address these threats.

Mr. Pyatt provided an upbeat view of the security situation saying that NATO and Afghan forces are becoming instrumental in providing security in the country. Mr. Pyatt stated that all apprehensions of US disengaging itself from Afghanistan were baseless due to the lessons learnt from 9/11 about the costs the US paid for not addressing the Afghan problem in the past. Mr. Macaire highlighted drugs as the major threat emanating from Afghanistan. He said that nearly 95 per cent of the heroin in Britain comes from Afghanistan. This is why, Mr. Macaire argued, Britain has taken a lead in focussing exclusively on anti-drug programmes and operations in Afghanistan.

Echoing the British diplomat's view, Mr. Kairat Umarov also highlighted drug production and trafficking to be the major threat to regional security and economy. The Kazakh Ambassador stressed that policing, legislation and other measures have to be coordinated to address this danger effectively. The Afghan Ambassador urged everyone to take the challenge posed by Taliban and Al Qaida as real and not exaggerated. Mr. Khalili narrated the kidnapping of 3 UN workers from Kabul recently and said that this incident clearly showed that terrorists still pose a threat to Afghan stability. Though Mr. Khalili said that he cannot comment on whether Pakistan has changed its policy towards Afghanistan, he stressed that Mr. Karzai has been able to tell clearly to the Pakistanis that their policy towards Kabul could also harm them. Mr. Khalili also highlighted drugs and provincial militias as threats to stability. Gen. Choudhry stated that while drugs and arms are the key problems, the combination of drugs, arms and jihad poses a far worse threat to regional security. One of the participants, Mr. K. N. Daruwalla, stated that the main threat to regional security is Pakistan, which was being overlooked by the international community.

Role of External Actors
Though the presidential elections were termed successful, all the speakers and participants stressed that continued international support was required for a long-term to bring security and development to Afghanistan. The participants were of the view that the international community, particularly the US, should expand and honour military and economic commitments to Afghanistan. Given the fact that several faultlines such as ethnic divide, drugs, warlords and terrorists are still existing, Afghanistan needs a democratic system combined with rapid economic development to address these faultlines. Dr. Rao was critical of interference in Afghanistan by external powers. Dr. Rao said that it was only after 9/11 that external powers focussed on Afghanistan.

Dr. Etienne agreed with the criticism directed at foreign aid. He said that Western powers could have done things in a much better way beyond their rhetoric of education, women rights and democracy in Afghanistan. Dr. Etienne stated that the condition of women, despite the presence of external powers, has not changed much in Afghanistan. Moreover, Dr. Etienne stated that infrastructure development projects should have been taken on a priority. He pointed to the delays in several road construction projects in Afghanistan. Dr. Etienne also stressed that the Afghan development could be supported by exploiting the resource capability of neighbouring countries like Pakistan. Dr. Etienne argued for an aid commissioner who could supervise all the external aid and assistance to Afghanistan and ensure that such aid is utilised in the most beneficial manner.

Mr. Pyatt agreed to the fact that 9/11 attacks had completely changed US outlook towards Afghanistan and South Asia. Therefore, the US and the international community would ensure a long-term engagement so that Afghanistan does not become an incubator for terrorism. Mr. Pyatt highlighted the growing strength of Indo-US relationship as a major contributing factor in addressing issues of concern in regional and global affairs. Mr. Pyatt stated that Indian objectives in Afghanistan are complementary to American aims and Washington now recognises that there is much to be gained by listening to Indian perspectives on issues of regional and global concern.

Mr. Macaire stated that Britain was committed to ensure safe and successful parliamentary elections next year in Afghanistan and stated that long-term international support to Afghanistan was key to address threats to regional and global security. Ambassador Umarov outlined Kazakhstan's support to the anti-terror campaign in Afghanistan and detailed the activities of Kazakhstan's inter-agency commission that coordinates assistance for Afghanistan. The Kazakh Ambassador stressed that Afghanistan should become part of regional groupings so that a concerted effort could be undertaken. Stressing that the Afghan people wanted to see the results of reforms and assistance provided by the international community, the Kazakh Ambassador urged for greater focus on socio-political and economic programmes for Afghanistan.

Ambassador Khalili expressed gratitude for the huge international support to Afghanistan and said that in return, the common Afghan can only say thank you and ask for continued support. The Afghan Ambassador pointed to several achievements of Karzai's government in administration, education, forming a national army and police force etc. The Afghan Ambassador was, however, critical of the fact that most of the external assistance is channelled through NGOs. He stated that while both foreign and Afghan NGOs are important for reconstruction, a regulatory mechanism to assess their performance is also required. Ambassador Khalili urged foreign governments to provide the funds directly to the Karzai government in order to ensure accountability and effective use of funds. He also warned that the threats to security were not completely eliminated and therefore, the international community should remain engaged and not leave Afghanistan for a long-term.

Concluding remarks
During discussions, several participants expressed the view that regional security cannot be ensure unless the Pakistan factor is taken into account. Though most of the participants appreciated the role of the international community, some also expressed concern over whether there is a resurgence of superpower involvement in Afghanistan. Prof. Hari Vasudevan of the Academy of Third World Studies stated that the international community, mainly the US, should detail what it means by 'commitment', whether it is only financial support or physical presence for a long period. Brig. Gen. (retd.) Tej Kapoor said that peace in Afghanistan was a difficult proposition and warned that the provincial warlords will continue to pose problems to security and central leadership in the country. In his concluding remarks, Gen. Choudhry stated that what one has to remember is that the US and its allies are fighting a war for countries like India, which has been a victim of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. Therefore, India, US and the international community must assist the process of stabilisation of Afghanistan.